Wednesday, December 31, 2014

DLF (By Dec 31 EOD)


Numbers:
142: Weekly Chart Channel Resistance.
138.32: HEMA
137.70: CloseValue
137.6: UpperBand
137.40: CloseValue (adjusted)
137.08: 21 Hr SMA
136.35: WMA
135.69: 34 Hr SMA
135.49: LowerBand
133.83: LEMA
133: Weekly Chart Channel Support.

History:
138.25: During last down move, 4th wave ended here. (today price made one attempt to cross this. and could go upto 138.20 only)

new signals:
1) Stochastic (Day): turned up, trigerred two days back. Today above 20
2) MACD: Buy in hour chart

Existing signals:
1) Sell in MACD Day, Week, Month Charts

NOTE:
Green line, grey line and red line seem to be possible end point of this up move, with high probability is towards 142 level (red line).

Conservative Plan:

  • Green line just above 140 seems to be the minimum target. If opens below this, we can buy for this tgt. If opens above this line, then we can look forward for the 142 level.
  • if price opens below 138.25, we may buy for the target 138.20









DLF (By Dec 30 EOD)

Numbers:

HEMA: 138.39
DayHigh: 138.25
UB: 137.91
WMA: 136.81
CloseValue: 135.65
5EMA: 135.36
LowerBand: 135.31
DayLow: 134.25
LEMA: 133.22

Monday, December 29, 2014

DLF (By Dec 29 EOD) (Irregular Bottom Type2 ?)

New Signals:
closed below 21Hr SMA

Existing Signals:
MACD is sell in Day, Week, frozen candles.
MACD is in sell in current month candle.
21HrSma > 34HrSma
close value > LEMA, LowerBand, 34HrSma

Other observations:
DayCh: Stohastic turned up; not triggered.

Numbers:
146.26: 21SMA
143: Day Channel Res (possible wave4 end)
140.x: Green Diagonal Upper Line.
138.48: UpperBand
138.46: HEMA
137.65: WMA
136.71: 50SMA
135.10: 21Hr SMA
135.03: 5EMA
135.80: CloseValue
134.74: LowerBand
134.58: 34Hr SMA
132.7: LEMA
130.x: Green Diagonal Lower Line.

118: Day Ch Support
-------
Weekly Constants:
141.20: Weekly R2
138.57: Weekly R1
134.34: Weekly Pivot
131.65: Weekly S1
127.23: Weekly S2
---------
143.4: 38.2% retracement of the down move from 166 to 129.4
126: 123% retracement of possible upmove from 129.4 to 143.4
125.27: 61.8% retracement of the upmove: 100.1 to 166
-----------
123: End of 1st wave in the previous up move from 100.1 to 166
109: Start of 3rd wave in the previous up move from 100.1 to 166
---------
DayHigh: 140.40
DayClose: 135.80
DayLow: 135.05

Images:








Friday, December 26, 2014

DLF (By Dec 26 EOD)

New Signals:
close value > LEMA, 5EMA, LowerBand, 21HrSma, 34HrSma
21HrSma > 34HrSma

Existing Signals:
MACD is sell in Day, Week, frozen candles.
MACD is in sell in current month candle.

Other observations:
DayCh: Stohastic turned up; not triggered.

Numbers:
147.62: 21SMA (Day Ch)
146.86: 21DaySMA
138.98: UpperBand (Day Ch)
138.77: WMA(15)
137.48: HEMA
136.93: 50 SMA (Day Ch)
136.92: Day Ch Res (approx)
136.20: Adjusted Close Value
135.95: Close Value
134.77: 5EMA (DayCh)
134.47: LowerBand (Day Ch)
132: Weekly channel resistance.(approx)
131.53: LEMA
125.27: 61.8% retracement of the upmove: 100.1 to 166
123 : Day Ch Sup (approx)
123: End of 1st wave in the previous up move from 100.1 to 166
120: Florescent blue support in weekly chart.
106.70: Weekly channel support.
109: Start of 3rd wave in the previous up move from 100.1 to 166
---------
DayHigh: 136.90
DayClose: 136.20
21HrSMA: 133.35
34HrSMA: 133.34

DayLow: 129.90
------------

Retracements For the fall (3rd+4b / 5? wave) from 161.25 to 129.4 :
23: 136.9166
38: 141.5667
50: 145.325
61.8: 149.0833
161.8: 180.9

Retracements For the fall (3rd wave) from 161.25 to 133 :
23: 139.667
38: 143.7915
50: 147.125

61.8: 150.4585

Images:





Thursday, December 25, 2014

DLF (By Dec 24 EOD)

New Signals:
close value < LEMA

Existing Signals:
MACD is sell in Day, Week, frozen candles.
MACD is in sell in current month candle.

Numbers:
147.62: 21 SMA (Day Ch)
143.20: Weekly channel resistance.
139.54: UpperBand (Day Ch)
137.77: HEMA
137.26: 50 SMA (Day Ch)
136.60: Day Ch Res (approx)
135.06: LowerBand (Day Ch)
134.06: 5EMA (DayCh)
133.68: 34Hr SMA  (just 2 candels before 3rd down wave, bearish cross over happened)
133.62: 21Hr SMA
132.35: LEMA
131.30: Close Value
125.27: 61.8% retracement of the upmove: 100.1 to 166
124.30 : Day Ch Sup (approx)
123: End of 1st wave in the previous up move from 100.1 to 166
118.40: Weekly channel support.
109: Start of 3rd wave in the previous up move from 100.1 to 166

Images:






Tuesday, December 23, 2014

DLF (By Dec 23 EOD)

Observations:

  • Both 34 and 21 HR SMA have given resistance throughout 4th wave.
  • They are nearing for bullish cross over.


New Signals:

  • Green DOJI.
  • close value > LEMA


Existing:
MACD sell signal in Day Chart.
MACD Sell signal in Weekly and Monthly charts.

Numbers:
148.08: 21 SMA (Day Ch)
140.46: UpperBand (Day Ch)
139.16: HEMA
137.68: 50 SMA (Day Ch)
136.08: LowerBand (Day Ch)
136.84: Day Ch Res (red)(approx)
135.16: 5EMA (DayCh)
133.50: Close Value
133: LEMA
125.3: Day Ch Sup (red) (approx)
123: End of 1st wave in the previous up move from 100.1 to 166
109: Start of 3rd wave in the previous up move from 100.1 to 166

Images:





Monday, December 22, 2014

DLF ( By Dec 22 EOD)

Observations:

New Signals:
Day Sto: 9.58; turned up. Not triggered.

Existing:
MACD sell signal in Day Chart.
MACD Sell signal in Weekly and Monthly charts.

Numbers:
148.81: 21 SMA (Day Ch)
141.88: UpperBand (Day Ch)
141.29: HEMA
138.01: 50 SMA (Day Ch)
137.76: LowerBand (Day Ch)
136.84: Day Ch Res (red)(approx)
136.56: 5 EMA (DayCh)
134.22: LEMA
133.65: Close Value
125: Day Ch Sup (red) (approx)
123: End of 1st wave in the previous up move from 100.1 to 166
109: Start of 3rd wave in the previous up move from 100.1 to 166

Sunday, December 21, 2014

DLF (By Dec 19 EOD)

Plan for Dec 22:

To use 4-d to 4-e path: 
Using Purple channel in 15 min chart: Buy at: 132 and exit at: 133 (LET US NOT USE THIS UP MOVE.)

To use 4-e to 5 path:
sell at 4-e (136 ~ 138.75) and travel till 5 (approx 127.5). (aim: 6 points)

After 5th wave:

After 5th wave there can be a quick up move. (Cautious entry.)

  • 38.2% and 61.8% retracemets of 5th wave are: 130 and 133 levels
  • 38.2% retracement of full down move 166 to 127.5 level is: 142.
Note:
After 3 (133), bounce to 3-4 (145 approx) was expected and did not happen. But we saw bounce upto [4] (139 approx).

Observations:

New Signals:
MACD Sell signal in Weekly and Monthly charts.

Existing:
MACD sell signal in Day Chart.

Numbers:
149.13: 21 SMA (Day Ch)
143.69: HEMA
143.68: UpperBand (Day Ch)
139.69: LowerBand (Day Ch)
138.17: 50 SMA (Day Ch)
137.94: 5 EMA (DayCh)
137.x: Day Ch Res (red)
136: Day Ch Res
135.68: LEMA
127: Day Ch Sup (red) (approx)
123: End of 1st wave in the previous up move from 100.1 to 166
122.5: Day Ch Sup
109: Start of 3rd wave in the previous up move from 100.1 to 166








Wednesday, December 17, 2014

DLF (by Dec17 EOD)

Observation:

  • If seen in 60min chart with close values, we can easily see a 5wave in the move from 161.25 to 133. We can easily see ending diagonal in the 5th wave of this 3rd wave.



Stochastic (Day): 13.74.

new signals:

  • Weekly Chart & Monthly (MACD): sell.
  • MACD Buy signal upto 30min chart.
  • +ve div in 5min, 10min RSI
  • Broke the support line 136 through ending diagonal.

Key Numbers:
154.15: 2nd wave of 3rd down wave ended here.
149.71: 5EMA
149.45: HEMA
148.7: Upper Band
147.60: probable start of 3rd wave of 5th wave during down move.
145.50: Start of ending diagonal.
145.47: Lower Band
141.49: LEMA
140.15: down-red-channel top
138.84: 50Day SMA
133: Today's low






Tuesday, December 16, 2014

DLF (by Dec 16, EOD)

Observation:
Finally there is a hope for reversal as we see an ending diagonal with 5th wave, which could end potentially at 136.5.

(Next day note: This tiny ending diagonal took whole day of Dec 17th to develop.)

Important numbers:
156.50: Old Floresent Channel Bottom (DayCh)
156.50: DownChannel top (DayCh)
153.95: HEMA (DayCh)
152.75: Upper Band (DayCh)
149.90: 21 SMA (DayCh)
149.84: Lower Band (DayCh)
147.69: 5EMA (DayCh)
147.60: probable start of 3rd wave of 5th wave during down move.
145.73: LEMA (DayCh)
145.50: Start of ending diagonal.
139.31: 50 SMA (DayCh)
136.5: BIG SUPPORT (reversal zone); 5th wave (which ended at 166) started from here (DayCh)
125.27: 61.8% retracement of the upmove 100.1 to 166

Snap shots of  table and 10, 60 min charts are attached...




Monday, December 15, 2014

DLF (By Dec 15, EOD)


Strategy:
Sell when price touches the resistance line of downward blue channel.

I see the following:
5th wave of 3rd down wave (ref: 10min ch) is likely to end at: 142.8.
Small bounce for 4th wave.(upto: 147.xx) (max upto: 149.xx)
Then 5th down wave. (to 136.xx)

(this 5th wave either may end at: 136.xx or may not go beyond 3 for truncated 5. As the length is expected to be same as 1 (8.8 pts), all depends on how much correction 4th wave is going to give.)

174.87: Montly Ch Res
158.28: HEMA
156.12: Weekly Pivot
156.02: Upper Band
153.89: Lower Band
152.10: 5EMA
149.94: 21SMA
149.77: LEMA
147.97: 38.2% retracement of the fall: 154.15 to 144.15
146.20: Weekly S1
141.82: 50SMA
140.83: 38% retracement of the upmove 100.1 to 166
140.30: Monthly Ch Support
140.15: Weekly S2
136.x: BIG SUPPORT
125.27: 61.8% retracement of the upmove 100.1 to 166




Sunday, December 14, 2014

DLF (By Dec 12, EOD)


Numbers: (SPOT)

157.61: SM UpperBand
155.58: SM LowerBand
150.50: Diagoanal support. 
146~145: 

Numbers: (FUTURE):
151.50: Diagoanal support

End point of current down move (from 166):
During the upmove(from 100.1), 2rnd wave of 5th wave (from 136.5) ended at: 146.05.
So, 146.05 will provide a good support and hence a potential reversal point. If this happens, in DayChart, following changes will happen:

  1. Move from 100.1 to 166 will be marked as 1.
  2. move from 166 to 145.05 will be marked as 2
  3. move from 145.05 will be the 3rd wave. 

Duration of 5th wave of the down move (from 166):
As only 3rd wave has extension, 5th wave should be equal to 1st wave.
So, we expect Wave1 = Wave5.
Wave1 covered 8,8 points (=166-157.2) in 5 candles.
One candle is over for Wave5. So, we expect 145.05 in 4 candles. (means between 12noon to 1pm on Monday). 

So, last 1 and half hour  or 2 hours, we can see 1st wave of 3rd wave.

Uploading 60min chart and day chart:










Friday, December 12, 2014

NIFTY (By Dec 12, EOD)

Observation:

Day Chart:

  • Completed 5 wave up-move with 5th wave having 5-waves. 
  • Correction is going on. Following are the possible logical ends to this correction:
    • Range: 7985 to 7992. (end of 5-2)
    • Range: 7723 to 7780. (start of 5)
    • Fib lines in the current up channel.
  • Closed just above 50 SMA with low < 50 SMA.
  • As stochastic is at 7, up b-wave is expected any time.
Numbers:
8353: LowerBand (DayCh)



Thursday, December 11, 2014

DLF (By Dec 11 EOD)

Last day of the week. Listen to weekly chart.

DayCh:
1) After Nov 25th, first time price closed below 5EMA. (Last time next day, price moved bottom of this day channel to top of the channel. Tomorrow bottom of the channel is: 152.50 (approx) and top of the channel is: 170.40 (approx))

2) Stochastic remains in sell

5min chart:
RSI has hit the bottom line.

60min chart:
Stochastic is high

WeekCh:
MACD "buy" in current candle.
Week ch support: 143.43
Week ch resistance: 173.13

FUTURE:
158.96: UpperBand (DayChart)
156.69: LowerBand (DayChart)
152.66: Weekly Channel support line (for tomorrow)

SPOT:
171: Channel Res (DayCh)
168.50: Weekly R1
158.70: 5EMA (DayCh)
158.13: UpperBand (DayCh)
157.70: Weekly Pivot
156.14: LowerBand (DayCh)
152.70: Channel Support (DayCh)
152: Purple Line Support (Week Ch)
151.70: Weekly S1